New predictions from Electoral Calculus Ltd reveal a marked change in the political landscape of Wells and Mendip Hills, with the Liberal Democrats predicted to take the lead in the next general election.

This shift comes after years of Conservative control in the area, including the 2019 election, where the Conservatives won with a majority of 13,225 votes.

However, the latest figures currently suggest a narrowing margin, with the Conservative lead reduced to just 2.4%.

The predicted results show the Liberal Democrats leading with a 32.7% vote share, overtaking the Conservatives who are now at 30.3%. Labour follows with a 22.2% share, a significant increase from their previous 10%. The Reform Party is also making inroads with a predicted 10.6% of the vote.

These changes are mirrored in the ward-by-ward predictions within the constituency, with the Liberal Democrats expected to win in several key areas, including Blagdon and Churchill, Congresbury and Puxton, and Shepton Mallet, among others.

The 2024 General Election will see Somerset's political landscape changed, with the region's parliamentary representation being expanded from five to seven constituencies.

This reorganisation, approved by Parliament in March, followed the recommendations of the Boundary Commission for England which were honed through three rounds of public consultations.

The new constituencies now include:

• Bridgwater
• Frome and East Somerset
• Glastonbury and Somerton
• Taunton and Wellington
• Tiverton and Minehead
• Wells and Mendip Hills
• Yeovil

The current MP for Wells, James Heappey has announced he will not be standing as a candidate. As such, the Wells and Mendip Hills race features Helen Hims from Reform UK, Independent candidate Abi McGuire, Tessa Munt for the Liberal Democrats, and Peter Welsh representing the Green Party. The Conservative Party has not revealed a candidate for Wells and Mendip Hills.